This article was originally published in BDO Spotlight - June 2024
In today’s uncertain world, businesses face many unpredictable challenges, from economic downturns to geopolitical instability. Instead of wondering if change will happen, leaders should focus on how to handle it effectively.
From a pioneering thought leadership initiative by BDO Digital, four distinct scenarios —World Accelerated, World Sustained, World Fragmented, and World Divided—are envisioned for 2026, showing how advanced technology could transform businesses. Based on scenario planning and opinion research among mid-market business leaders, this study delves into the transformative potential of advanced technology across all scenarios.
In today’s uncertain world, businesses face many unpredictable challenges, from economic downturns to geopolitical instability. Instead of wondering if change will happen, leaders should focus on how to handle it effectively.
From a pioneering thought leadership initiative by BDO Digital, four distinct scenarios —World Accelerated, World Sustained, World Fragmented, and World Divided—are envisioned for 2026, showing how advanced technology could transform businesses. Based on scenario planning and opinion research among mid-market business leaders, this study delves into the transformative potential of advanced technology across all scenarios.
These scenarios focus on the convergence of technological innovation, corporate megatrends, societal shifts, and the geopolitical environment. On the "technology" axis, progress ranges from minimal gains to significant productivity boosts from AI and other advanced technologies. The "markets" axis spans from geopolitical instability to collaborative market networks.
Figure 1: The four distinct scenarios envisioned for 2026 from a pioneering thought leadership initiative by BDO Digital.
Figure 1: The four distinct scenarios envisioned for 2026 from a pioneering thought leadership initiative by BDO Digital.
Across all four future scenarios, technology emerges as the primary driver, helping organisations mitigate risks and enhance resilience. BDO Digital highlights the transformative power of technology in addressing complex business challenges and seizing emerging opportunities for sustainable growth.
Over the next three years, overcoming challenges with advanced digital solutions promises significant rewards. Technology is seen as crucial not only for survival but also for thriving in this dynamic landscape, with 81% of business leaders identifying it as the key enabler of organisational strategy. Additionally, 84% believe that accelerating technological innovation is vital for their survival. Leaders predict that each dollar invested in technology could potentially yield over $18 in additional revenue, highlighting the impact of strategic tech investment on growth and sustainability.
In every possible future, leaders must harness advanced technology to unlock transformational insights, boost productivity, and safeguard against complex security threats. However, challenges remain: 86% of leaders identify the failure to leverage technology and data, including AI, as a critical risk over the next three years and 75% cite a lack of tech expertise as a major impediment to growth.
This article is not about predicting the future with certainty but about empowering business leaders to proactively shape their destinies. In a world of constant change, planning for multiple possible futures becomes a strategic imperative. By embracing technology, organisations can future-proof themselves and avert potential pitfalls.
Article by: Gerard Seng, Executive Director, Digital Advisory